May 22, 2024


Careers Site

Canadian dollar on a roll ahead of US, Canada job reports

3 min read
Canadian dollar on a roll ahead of US, Canada job reports

  • US nonfarm payrolls expected to drop, but massive ADP jobs report is making investors nervous
  • Canada’s labour market is expected to rebound with a 20,000 gain

The Canadian dollar is drifting in the European session, trading at 1.3378.

It has been a good week for the Canadian currency, which is up about 1% against its US cousin. We can expect some significant movement from USD/CAD in the North American session, as both Canada and the US release the June employment reports.

Will nonfarm payrolls follow the ADP and soar?

The US labour market has been surprisingly resilient in the wake of relentless tightening by the Fed. After 500 basis points of hikes, the labour market remains strong and has been a driver of inflation, interfering with the Fed’s efforts to curb inflation.

The ADP employment report usually doesn’t get much attention, as it is not considered a reliable precursor to nonfarm payrolls, which follows a day or two after the ADP release. The June ADP reading was an exception, as the massive upturn couldn’t be ignored. ADP showed a gain of some 497,000 new jobs, crushing the consensus estimate of 267,000 and the May reading of 228,000. The nonfarm payrolls report is expected to ease to 225,000 in June, down from 339,000 in May, but investors are nervous that nonfarm payrolls could follow the ADP release and head higher.

If nonfarm payrolls defy the consensus estimate and climb higher, the US dollar should respond with gains. The Fed, which is very much hoping that the labour market weakens, would be forced to consider more tightening than it had anticipated. The money markets are widely expecting a rate hike on July 26th but have priced in a September pause at 67%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. If nonfarm payrolls jump higher, all bets are off and I would expect the probability of a September pause to fall.

Canada releases the June report later on Friday, which is usually overshadowed by US nonfarm payrolls. As in the US, the Canadian labour market has been strong – the economy added jobs for nine consecutive months until the May report. Canada is expected to add 20,000 new jobs in June, while the unemployment rate is projected to inch higher to 5.3% in June, up from 5.2% in May.


USD/CAD Technical

  • USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3318. Next, there is resistance at 1.3386
  • 1.3217 and 1.3149 are providing support

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at [email protected]. Visit to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Kenny Fisher

A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher


Copyright © All rights reserved. | Newsphere by AF themes.